Will Robots Take Over? 4 Predictions About the Future of Work
The Industrial Revolution of the 18th century not only ushered in steam engines and machinery but also sparked centuries of adjustment in the workplace (1). As machines moved in, the working class left traditional manufacturing jobs, eventually entering careers in other industries. As artificial intelligence and automation continues its explosive growth, Klaus Schwab, executive founder of the World Economic Forum, calls the current age the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (2).
As par for the course, dire pronouncements abound. Soon, there will be no jobs. Robots are taking over. This alarmist perspective has little bearing on the actual future of employment, and it obscures the truth. Things like artificial intelligence and automation are indeed changing the economy, but they’re also bringing in massive change, hopefully, for the better.
1) Some parts of many jobs will become obsolete
Looking back on the historical precedent of the Industrial Revolution, it’s evident that jobs didn’t become obsolete overnight. Currently, America is still in the midst of the slow (but accelerating) decline of manufacturing jobs. According to the World Economic Forum, these changes didn’t occur only during the Industrial Revolution. Manufacturing jobs plunged from 19 million in 1979 to 17 million in 1999, all the way down to 12 million in 2009 (3).
When viewing the current employment situation through this lens, it’s clear that many industries are looking at a definite, but ultimately manageable, obsolescence as a result of automation and AI. In the New World of Work podcast from McKinsey Global Institute, James Manyika discusses which tasks are under fire (4). Out of the eight categories of total work available, three of those groups are highly susceptible to automation: data collection, data processing, and physical work in structured settings.
What this means, according to Manyika, is that in 60% of professions, about one-third of the activities of that job are easy to automate. He predicts that about 16% of occupations will be automated by 2030.
So, it’s not unusual to hear economists and job predictors say that automation is on the horizon for workers. And what exactly do these easy-to-automate jobs look like? Well, according to Futurist Speaker, some of the following positions will be in fierce robot-competition by 2030 (5):
• Driverless cars will put taxi and bus drivers out of business.
• Drones will eliminate the need for courier or food delivery services.
• Advanced AI could eliminate accountants, auditors, and general news reporting.
2) Workers will evolve their skill sets
From a glance, the jobs mentioned above are similar in that they require skill sets that AI can replicate. To adapt to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the workforce needs to re-analyze valued skills. The World Economic Forum recently published a report on the future of jobs, outlining the skills that are likely to grow and decline by 2020 as a result of smoother processes and better automation (6).
• Growing skills: innovation, technology design, critical thinking, leadership, emotional intelligence.
• Declining skills: Manual dexterity, reading and writing skills, quality control, personnel management.
When it comes to the jobs of the future, the key to adaptation lies in skill-set changes. To adapt to a workforce that prioritizes innovative, scientific, and critical thinking as opposed to rote memorization, employees will have to evolve their skills and abilities. In an age where any fact can be dragged up from a smartphone screen, why would anyone value the ability to memorize? Wouldn’t people instead appreciate the ability to synthesize and empathize?
According to the Futurist Speaker article cited above, even what many consider high-level jobs might need to evolve. Consider medicine, for example: in the past, memorization was an essential skill for diagnosing and treating patients. But a recent article in Futurism posits that AI is more reliable than cardiologists in diagnosing heart disease (7).
So how can physicians stay relevant when AI technology is becoming more and more adept at diagnosing patients? Well, less time with lower-level diagnostics means more free time, and more free time means a greater emphasis on patient care, innovation, and interpersonal skills.
3) Many workers will do freelance work
Upwork and Freelancers Union teamed up on a massive study to quantify the changing world of freelance work in the United States. According to their research, 47% of millennials already engage in freelance work (8). By 2027, the report predicts that the majority of Americans will freelance.
Why are workers so willing to eschew the traditional 9-to-5 workday? A 2018 FreshBooks report seeks to answer that very question (9). According to the report, many workers are beginning to prioritize flexibility over stability. Of the surveyed respondents, 43% felt motivated by the promise of more control of their careers, with 43% driven by career change.
Also, 32% of respondents cited their families as a reason to do more freelance work. In some respects, freelancers seem to be getting what they want, with 71% reporting job satisfaction, compared to 61% of traditional workers.
The future of work is freelance. This change will have a massive ripple effect on the rest of the economy. Will people be traveling as much for work? Will they have to live in urban areas? What will become of benefits like retirement savings and health insurance for freelancers?
4) If all else fails — UBI?
No discussion of the future of work would be complete without briefly theorizing about a work-less future. Many of the most technologically inclined (and wealthiest) figures in the century, like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, have discussed Universal Base Income (UBI) as a possibility for the future (10).
As opposed to other government support systems, such as the current unemployment insurance model set up in the United States, the UBI system proposes rewarding every citizen with a base income that would allow a certain standard of living. The hope is that people given the ability to eat, live, and provide for their children will still want to engage with creative and innovative pursuits, if not to make more money, then to contribute to society.
This system, proposed in Thomas More’s Utopia in 1516, has recently become a subject of widespread debate (11). While robots won’t (according to previous sources) completely take over jobs any time soon, the UBI model provides for a far-distant future in which humankind’s perceptions of work and money will have to change drastically to account for a mostly automated future.
From nearly certain eventualities such as the burgeoning freelance marketplace or more tenuous possibilities like UBI as an answer to changes in the workforce, here’s the key takeaway: there is time for human beings to evolve to match the AI capacities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. With developing skill sets, creativity, and possibly more flexibility and free time, thanks to AI, workers can respond to the changing workforce with inherent human resilience.
Sources:
1. theconversation.com/what-the-industrial-revolution-really-tells-us-about-the-future-of-automation-and-work-82051
2. weforum.org/about/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab
3. weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/us-manufacturing-jobs-have-declined-this-is-where-theyve-really-gone
4. mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/what-is-the-future-of-work
5. futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/101-endangered-jobs-by-2030/.
6. reports.weforum.org/future-of-jobs-2018/shareable-infographics/
7. futurism.com/ai-diagnose-heart-disease-lung-cancer-more-accurately-doctors
8. s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/adquiro-content-prod/documents/Infographic_UP-URL_2040x1180.pdf
9. freshbooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2018selfemploymentreport.pdf
10. cnbc.com/2017/12/27/what-billionaires-say-about-universal-basic-income-in-2017.html
11. whatis.techtarget.com/definition/universal-basic-income-UBI
Will Robots Take Over? 4 Predictions About the Future of Work
Research & References of Will Robots Take Over? 4 Predictions About the Future of Work|A&C Accounting And Tax Services
Source
0 Comments