Will Artificial Intelligence Steal your Job?
Imagine a world where you are competing against machines to be more creative, in order to survive economically.
There’s something very sensational about how machine learning, automation and disruptive new uses of deep learning and robots will impact our tasks at work and make our jobs obsolete. We can expect this to occur gradually over the next 30 years in:
This is because as AI itself evolves so do robots, drones, and aspects of automation that will make the internet-of-things a reality in an increasingly evolving smart city dynamics of everything.
While in the long-term AI is thought to create many new kinds of jobs due to the accelerating nature of automation it’s possible there will be periods of radical adjustment and disruption of the labor force where skill shortages combined with higher unemployment will impact the global economy in a negative if temporary way.
The threat from A.I. as a more exponential force impacting our work lives and making our skills redundant is slowly starting to go from science-fiction to reality, where AI shows advancements even in traditionally white collar fields such as law and medical surgery, medical diagnostics and content automation that could continue to put into question the future of media and news and journalism.
More disruptively perhaps autonomous vehicles and delivery robots will easily transform transportation, trucking, delivery and logistics as a whole impacting millions of jobs globally.
Meanwhile as machine learning begins to impact healthcare more, a radical improvement in robotics, LiDAR and drone technology impacts everything from the retail sector to the construction industry. The “end of cashiers” and the traditional sales rep in retail could also signal a greater reliance on machines than people in traditional market and retail store environments.
The agents that will profit the most form AI are understandably the most optimistic about its impact to the global economy as good and positive. But in a Capitalism that’s already showing signs of failing the middle class and consumers, with radical wealth inequality on its way, automation and AI is the wave that puts us over the edge into civil unrest.
In such a scenario, it’s AI that helps police the dark inequality of the technological state. The same facial recognition AI that today is plagued by bias and faulty loopholes. Capitalism and democracy can be sufficiently hacked by an elite or foreign nation states by the very technologies they are telling us will increase global GDP.
The idea that AI augments human beings is more than a bit ridiculous. It’s a bit like the Silicon Valley narrative that promised the internet would “connect” us like never before. It didn’t speak to the consequences of what those technologies would eventually become or do to us as consumers, workers, as leisure addictions and human beings unable to resist the psychological hijacking of mobile devices, apps and technological consumption of widespread distraction that costs the global economy $billions in worker productivity.
Rather curiously, report after report assumes AI will be great for the world. As tech monopolies mature and continue to “eat the market”, artificial intelligence will create caste-systems where capitalism won’t just be unequal in wealth and access to opportunities that wealth provides, but in degrees of technological enhancement and AI-augmentation.
Eventually this will include biotech enhancements for our offspring. Access to augmentation differences points to a future transhumanistic caste-system, and we’re building it like it’s going to be awesome for us as a society.
To be a loser in capitalism will mean less access to all the shiny enhancements of becoming essentially more cybernetic and augmented by AI, where the 1% get first access.
What this does to the job market and the coming skill gaps you can only imagine. Wealth inequality leads to AI-inequality and it’s more radical a world of differences than of equalities as some of the tenets of capitalism and consumerism begin to break down beginning in the mid 21st century.
Technology has progressed nonstop for 250 years, and in the US unemployment has stayed between 5 to 10 percent for almost all that time, but what if smart machines devices from this norm? It’s highly likely AI is like opening a Pandora’s box of what it does for human jobs, participation in the economy and the paradox of human meaning itself.
Increased automation means a steadying increase in the ratio of robots to humans in the world. An exponential rise of AI patents suggests companies that will be even more disruptive than the internet companies of ages past such as Microsoft, Apple, Facebook and Google. The next-generation of technological companies will be even more ruthless.
What’s to prevent an Alibaba or a Huawei from leading the next era of consumer devices, such as a neural interface for instance? The world won’t always be in a standstill of apps and mobile devices. Or in a purgatory of waiting for AR glasses or with personal assistants that spy on us more than they personalize utilities for us. The pace of technological change is still relatively slow in 2019, compared to what’s coming.
We feared the impact of the internet in 1993, but just look at what the internet will become by 2023. It’s not unlike the internet we would have feared, corrupted by monopolies and a cybersecurity mine field of privacy invasion, spam and corporate interests with a few winners and a reality where advertising dollars rules and constrains innovation itself.
One might compare the internet of 2023 with an authoritarian state where we are hoodwinked into believing we have found ultimate convenience where we are schooled under the hood into docile conformity.
You can’t simply put a stop on technology innovation, the clear lack of American regulating its tech giants is a bad sign to the impact of AI upon the middle class. In spite of anti-trust violations, there’s no sign Amazon, Google, Facebook or others will face regulation or being broken apart any time soon. The AI-wars with China will actually hasten the impact of technology upon the job market and the labor pool of skills.
While we know repetitive jobs are more prone to automation we do not completely understand how AI, machine learning and automation will impact thousands of other jobs or how quickly they will scale to do so. While human beings naturally fear uncertainty, we’ve never encountered a technology that has the impact to automate so many aspects of our lives simultaneously.
It’s as if you compress a few hundred years of urban living into a few decades, that is the kind of exponential tech evolution we will see starting around 2035 and changing human life forever culminating in an end-game world in the 2080s.
The 2020s? They are just the setting up of a landscape of things to come. AI is not like steam or electricity, AI is a world that can make smart machines and algorithms primary and human rights secondary at a scale and in ways humanity didn’t anticipate.
In 2019, we are only starting to begin to realize how this might take place. The prospect of AI stealing and impacting our jobs while real for a few of us, is not something the mainstream will need to think of much in the present.
6 years after the now famous Oxford Martin study by Frey and Osborne in 2013 concluded that “[a]ccording to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk”, we do not yet feel the chill of automation, but it is coming and it’s impact on the labor force and on youth unemployment globally in particular could be considerable.
Or technological shocks theory could be a myth, and we’ll blissfully continue on with an imperfect but tolerable capitalism.
Will Artificial Intelligence Steal your Job?
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