An Entrepreneur’s Look at 2009: The End or A New Beginning?
As an entrepreneur, I’ve worried that the economic downturn might make this a terrible time to go entrepreneur-ing.
Not only have I focused more on my day job, my personal consumer confidence is also way down–i.e., no new camera I’ve been lusting for to record my infant son’s first spittle.
But what about other industries? Will 2009 bring the end of entrepreneurship in say, publishing, music, real estate, PR, web 2.x and improv comedy? I don’t know, but wishing I did, I asked some friends who, lucky for me, are in exactly those businesses. Here’s what they had to say about the year to come:
Ali Farahnakian, actor, writer, and owner of the People’s Improv comedy theater. He’s expecting to stay strong next year because “Our comedy shows are $5 to $10, so we have still grown in ticket sales.” And his writing classes for TV comedy, he says, “fill a niche that is not filled by any other theater or school in the country.”
Richard Nash, publisher. Although the book publishing industry is down 2% overall, he says, “Ironically, Soft Skull is having it best year ever.” As a small publisher, he’s not tightly tied to general trends, so next year might be the same — or not. What matters to him is that he’s “more sensitive to customers’ needs.”
Paul Zweben, partner in several restaurants in NYC and Washington, DC. As a restaurateur, he has seen the worst (at least, out of my poll-ees). Usually December is “Customers having big company parties and revenue pouring in.” This year business fell by 40%. And the average bill has dropped because people are “passing on bottle water and drinking wine by the glass instead of ordering a bottle.” Nevertheless, he’s not closing any of his 4 restaurants. And his new one just recently opened.
Carolyn Zweben, New York City real estate agent. While the real estate business has become “very challenging,” there is the opportunity that “If we get a lot more inventory in January on the market, that will pep up buyers.” And she plans to be there and use the reality that “this market will flush out the realtors who add no value” to her advantage.
Robert Reich, Web search entrepreneur and co-founder of oneRiot. He’s confident of the strength of OneRiot’s idea and platform, and that they therefore have a strong position for 2009. However, he sees a broader challenge for many other technology companies that “major players who have traditionally had an appetite for innovative startups are currently not buying,” and “If venture people cannot exit, something new will have to emerge to keep the startup world moving and this is going to take time.”
David Hahn, Managing Director of the PR agency Planned TV Arts. October was a disaster for PR, but “We rebounded somewhat in November and December is looking to be on pace with past years.” An as long as companies need to reach their market, PR will play a role in 2009.
Matt Vogel, band manager for a variety of mid-sized music acts. His stable of musicians is seeing less revenue, and so is he. He’s also seen a half dozen of his closest friends lose their jobs. However, he notes, “I can still wake up to my same job.
What everyone could agree on was that there is a lot of concern about the other guy failing. Much like the story told by the car companies, my friends can easily imagine a 2009 where the collapse of someone along the money chain brings doom for them. All of them see the credit crunch as a potential crippler for either their customers or distributors.
For example, Ali feels the pressure of landlords who’ve raised rents to cover their mortgage commitments, while Richard fears that if a major retailer like Borders runs short of cash and ends up closing stores, he could get crushed as an innocent bystander. And Robert worries about M&A money drying up completely and closing the door on innovative startups like his.
What might appear counterintuitive, then, is that no one is planning on closing up shop and hiding out in Ecuador. Quite the opposite — everyone is planning on investing on new products, lines of business, or expansion in 2009. Matt, for example, replied to my email query on the way to a present an idea for new product distribution methods to investors.
In sum, while utter disaster has missed my friends, and fear rules the day, almost everyone saw 2009 as a chance to continue to go strong, or at least survive. The prevailing opinion is that “The first half of 2009 will be bad, but it’s sure to come back by the end of the year.”
And that includes me, as I’ve continued forward with Jamseed: developing the site, trying to bring in users, seeking capital. But what specifically should be done to prepare for and cope with “the worst financial situation of our lifetime.” Well, that deserves another post (check back next week).
What do you think? Is 2009 the end of time, space, and no money down? Do you think that more industries are ready to fail? Would you start a new venture now?
David Silverman has had ten careers so far, including entrepreneur, executive, and business writing professor. He is the author of Typo: The Last American Typesetter or How I Made and Lost 4 Million Dollars and of the April 2011 HBR article, Synthesis: Constructive Confessions.
An Entrepreneur’s Look at 2009: The End or A New Beginning?
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